Today five of the world’s top experts in social-environmental forecasting published an op-ed claiming to have derived a model of self-sustained ecological impact that is more accurate than the one used by WICO to create the global strategy for dealing with the imminent extinction threat. The model’s predictions show that the current target for total consumption is twice what it needs to be, and it must be achieved by 2040 to meet the strategy’s goals. A cache of data and detail about their derivation was delivered online to WICO headquarters just before publication. In a short public statement, Samantha Lazlo promised that a thorough review of the claim and supporting materials will be complete by next Tuesday, and any required changes to the strategy will be identified and announced by the end of the week.
I asked my favorite experts what they thought of the claim. Al Menzies was surprised that such a challenge hadn’t been made sooner: “The trashin’ of the biosphere assessment opened the door for it. I know three of those researchers, and they’ve been salivatin’ for a chance to show your cybercritter what good ole’ fashioned scientists can do with their own data. Their reputations and the implications for the timeline are too serious to ignore.” Maura Riddick suggested that we wait for Sally’s verdict before getting behind the new projections, especially since there is no time left to delay the strategy’s execution.
For me, it validated the need for inspiring creativity in observation, understanding, and action based on a core respect for all life. A strategy is just a guide; and a guide must be based on reality to enable success. More people gaining more experience, and sharing lessons learned about the reality it embodies, provides feedback necessary to improve the guide and its usefulness to more people. Even incorrect understanding can yield more insight into reality when it is tested, because it often results in more experience and questions that drive more robust understanding.
Pondering this, I have realized that, fundamentally, the lack of such creative feedback in the education aspect of the strategy’s deployment is what drove me to leave WICO. I knew that soon it would drive me crazy, replacing the feeling of doing something meaningful with doubt and longing for finding my own way and sharing what I learn with others. Whatever happens with the implementation of the global strategy, I know I can’t escape the drive to tweak my contribution to it now as a citizen, and encourage others to do the same.
Reality Check
The “model” is based on a new simulation, illustrated in the following graphs:
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