Adaptation

Today the world formally approved an update of the global strategy that incorporates the Leveloff trajectory. This coincidentally followed certification of Sally’s health and reliability by the AI Evaluation task force that Maura and I were on for nearly a month.

We learned from the task force that STRIDE (WICO’s office of Strategy Tracking, Response, Integration, Development, and Execution) is now primarily focused on developing ways to avert the large spike in deaths expected if efforts to stop external impacts are not successful during the transition. Relevant research organizations not already involved in stopping external impacts are being asked to assist in this backup adaptation planning. Many of those organizations, referred to by STRIDE as backup adaptation planning organizations (BAPOs), are departments and laboratories in colleges and universities, while others are consortia that are large enough to have their own staff and dedicated resources.

Of course, I have direct experience with two of the first BAPOs, which are part of Colorado Holistic University where I work. In addition to performing their educational functions, which remain extremely valuable in their own right, the history and physics departments explore the theoretical and empirical underpinnings of the global strategy to map out new scenarios. Those scenarios are tested using physical and social analogs from both the recent and distant past with the assistance of experts from other departments who are now available to help, as well as others with specialized experience such as me, Al, and former members of WICO’s test communities.

Maura is using lessons learned about habitat rehabilitation technologies during our working honeymoon to include more likely ecosystem states in existing and new scenarios. Al, who took off on his own after the wedding, remains in Hawaii to get direct data that can be fed into the environmental model that our physics department is contributing to and using. Sally’s maintenance break resulted in a considerable increase in her efficiency, freeing plenty of bandwidth to help with the entire effort in addition to her other duties.

Reality Check

The updated simulation, now called Hikeyay Prime, has the following present and future:

Past and projected annual rates of change are shown below.

Following is what today and a likely future looks like in a simulated version of our world.

Reset

WICO Secretary General Decatur made a rare announcement today that overshadowed all activities related to the imminent extinction threat. Essentially, he said that self-sustained impact projections used in the global strategy were too optimistic, and the alternative model presented by five scientists last week has been validated. The primary implication for the strategy is a faster ramp to a lower target for total consumption, with more aggressive waste cleanup and conversion to safely consumable forms. Adaptation approaches that occupied about a third of the strategy are not considered viable within the new time constraint.

Two major consequences struck me as I read details published afterward by WICO. One consequence is that the additional ecological impact of starting up more cleanup technology will more painfully reduce what individuals can consume. The second consequence is that tighter enforcement of personal behavior could cut off creativity that might be needed to detect and cope with a proliferation of unintended consequences. Creativity is of course the basis of Possibilities from Responsibilities, the movement that I am representing in my new job, and PFR’s future is now far more uncertain.

Maura decided to drop her request for transfer back to the Extinction Response Unit after learning that it will focus entirely on stopping self-sustained impacts immediately after it meets its strategy deployment obligations in two weeks. Samantha Lazlo agreed that she isn’t well suited, professionally or personally, for that or WICO’s education roll-out, and suggested that she interview instead for a position with the project Al might be joining. 

I was surprised that any technology and research unrelated to dealing with the extinction threat would be tolerated after Decatur’s announcement. Maura reassured me that WICO isn’t discouraging basic research or creative personal responses to the extinction threat; it’s just limiting the resources that can be consumed by them.

Reality Check

In my opinion, self-sustained impacts are the single greatest threat to the simulated world - and ours. I expect that emergency response to their presence would devote most new technology to trying to stop them, or at least slow them down. Ecosystems can be enlisted to help with that (one of the basic ideas behind the global strategy), and doing so includes helping them become healthy by reducing our impact on them. Pollution cleanup is one way of doing so, and it would almost certainly require a large technology component to deal with it in the limited time available.

Creative Feedback

 

Today five of the world’s top experts in social-environmental forecasting published an op-ed claiming to have derived a model of self-sustained ecological impact that is more accurate than the one used by WICO to create the global strategy for dealing with the imminent extinction threat. The model’s predictions show that the current target for total consumption is twice what it needs to be, and it must be achieved by 2040 to meet the strategy’s goals. A cache of data and detail about their derivation was delivered online to WICO headquarters just before publication. In a short public statement, Samantha Lazlo promised that a thorough review of the claim and supporting materials will be complete by next Tuesday, and any required changes to the strategy will be identified and announced by the end of the week. 

I asked my favorite experts what they thought of the claim. Al Menzies was surprised that such a challenge hadn’t been made sooner: “The trashin’ of the biosphere assessment opened the door for it. I know three of those researchers, and they’ve been salivatin’ for a chance to show your cybercritter what good ole’ fashioned scientists can do with their own data. Their reputations and the implications for the timeline are too serious to ignore.” Maura Riddick suggested that we wait for Sally’s verdict before getting behind the new projections, especially since there is no time left to delay the strategy’s execution.

For me, it validated the need for inspiring creativity in observation, understanding, and action based on a core respect for all life. A strategy is just a guide; and a guide must be based on reality to enable success. More people gaining more experience, and sharing lessons learned about the reality it embodies, provides feedback necessary to improve the guide and its usefulness to more people. Even incorrect understanding can yield more insight into reality when it is tested, because it often results in more experience and questions that drive more robust understanding. 

Pondering this, I have realized that, fundamentally, the lack of such creative feedback in the education aspect of the strategy’s deployment is what drove me to leave WICO. I knew that soon it would drive me crazy, replacing the feeling of doing something meaningful with doubt and longing for finding my own way and sharing what I learn with others. Whatever happens with the implementation of the global strategy, I know I can’t escape the drive to tweak my contribution to it now as a citizen, and encourage others to do the same.

Reality Check

The “model” is based on a new simulation, illustrated in the following graphs: