Phase Transition

TIME TO STRATEGY EXECUTION: 54 DAYS

“I’ve found that the best way to think about it is in terms of the seven phases.” Maura was sprawled on the couch in our new office, a converted conference room at the Boulder field office. She was still tired from a day of driving and hours of unpacking that lasted past midnight, not to mention a traffic-filled drive from Colorado Springs this morning. “The strategy is going to be used as a tool for moving from unhealthy phases to healthy phases, and helping others do the same.”

As if on cue, a chart appeared on the blank wall above the table that served as a desk for both of us. I stared at it from my office chair next to the couch, trying to imagine what she saw in the squiggly lines that crawled across the embedded graph representing the world’s population when the strategy is due to go live. “Most people are moving from phases six and seven to phases one through four,” I cited what I already knew, “but what does that mean to them?”

“For one thing, it means competition with the group that’s already there, a group that without WICO and the emergency declaration would be aggressively and effectively resisting them.”

I studied the graph. “That group is less than ten percent of the population, with less than twice that in total wealth. How could they effectively fight off more than two-thirds of the population?”

“By co-opting the quarter of the population in the phase between them who are in the final stage of approaching maximum happiness and life expectancy. Without understanding and believing the big picture, the people in that peak phase could easily and reasonably be convinced that the majority is trying to steal the prize they’re working hard to achieve. Self-defense is maybe the strongest motive for fighting.”

“Ignorance would be their friend,” I observed. “For some of them it still is, judging from recent events.” 

“Yes,” she agreed, and closed her eyes. Then she got weird. “In most worlds like ours, their success is everyone’s failure.” She opened her eyes and turned to me. “That can still happen in this one, Will.”

Her gaze, normally comforting, triggered a spike of adrenaline. I tried to focus on the solution. “Doesn’t the majority still have an edge in that case?” In addition to superior numbers, they had a few percent more of total wealth.

“It’s close to a tie at this point,” she admitted, sitting up and looking at the graph, “but because power traditionally derives from consumption of natural resources, they can’t generate more power. To get what they need, they have to effectively decrease consumption by increasing resources in the environment, which will take away an equivalent amount of power and give the others the advantage.”

 “So why are we better off again?” I asked, my voice betraying the panic I felt.

“We accept the fact that we’re all in mortal danger if we don’t make this happen.” I saw her point: self-defense means nothing if you kill yourself in the process.

Reality Check

The phase diagram for 2019 discussed by Will and Maura is shown below.