Context

By what WICO claims is coincidence, the number of regions and subregions now totals exactly one thousand. Maura suspects that such a round number is more likely an error correction based on the remote and direct observations accumulated over the past month, similar to the earlier increase in regions from around 120 to 300.

Maura and I went to the mountains for a break from work and the summer heat, but I knew it would be more than that when I found a Personal Environmental Assessment Kit in the trunk. We ended up at the site of the local test community (TC-013). “For fun” she demonstrated the full set of citizen observations, which includes a dozen added after I resigned from the GAP team. Several of the original residents were still there, and brought out their remaining instruments to verify our results. Maura and the others cheered when the observations matched to within ten percent, and teased me for not joining in.

Lei Kaleo and Maura’s cousin Ciera Johnson insisted that we all go to the nearest hot springs, which reminds the two best friends of one of their favorite activities when growing up. They lamented that the impending curtailment of air travel means they likely won’t get to return to their childhood home in Hawaii, whose rainforests are a large part of what led them to their present careers, but neither regrets moving to Colorado. During the trip, they all told stories of their time together, especially on the mountain; generally happy, some intriguing, and all providing context for current and future projects of both a personal and professional nature. 

ABOVE (L-R): Me, Maura, and Ciera.

Reality Check

I derived a mathematical formula for the cumulative population as a function of phase, and used it to derive total consumption as a function of phase. A key factor in the population function is dependent on sample size used in the calculation, which equals 1,000 when tweaked to get accurate values for global variables such as total resources and resources used by nature (as determined from historical analysis). 

The results for Hikeyay are shown below for 2019 year and 2040, the end of the transition. Basic functions of phase for life expectancy, happiness, fertility, and normalized population/nature are displayed along with the historical years that the world crossed, or is projected to cross, from one phase to another. Cumulative population is shown the given year. Cumulative consumption is also shown for the given year, as the fraction of maximum resources ever available (a total ecological footprint of approximately 3 Earths/year), while the total resources actually available due to reduction by self-sustained impacts is indicated by a dotted black line.

Limits of Knowledge

 

Maura returned home last night with a guest who will be helping us on our current project. Meanwhile, WICO reacted to widespread skepticism over the value of using subregions, similar what I shared in yesterday’s post about yesterday with Al.

In a written statement, Ambassador Lazlo emphasized that all of WICO’s education efforts include guidance for a variety of ecosystem types (biomes), specifically in the general introduction to guidance for each region. She added, “People moving to a new subregion will be furnished with the specific guidance they need from local extinction response units, which also have training available. Real-time observation of conditions is being used to update all guidance where appropriate, and can be shared with anyone in the world.”

Maura had her own reaction. “For now. That will be a luxury half-way through the transition, maybe sooner.” I asked her if she thought Al had a point. “Al always has a point,” she said approvingly. “He also has the benefit of lots more training and experience than most people, which is a big source of bias.”

“Do you think it’s sufficient?” She’d seen most of the training, and directly tested a lot more than me.

“They did a thorough job,” she said, not quite answering the question. “Though Al’s right to worry that changes can happen too fast for useful updates, even now. It will be even more problematic as technology quality and access degrades, even with significant improvement to conditions.”

“People will be learning in the process, though,” I suggested, “especially those who move a lot. They can share what they learn more effectively anyway, right?”

She thought about it. “That will work locally, more so over time, and any necessary global coordination will suffer. I’m sure Sally’s already factored that into her models. I’ve seen hints of it in the strategy.”

“What about Sally?” I asked. “She’ll be degrading too.” I wondered if she had taken any action on her plan to inhabit a mobile shell, which I imagined would look and act human.

“You’ll have to ask her,” Maura replied, “not that it’s anyone’s business but hers.” I had to agree. 

“So, one lesson is to make print books wherever we can.”

“Without killing too many trees,” she added.

Reality Check

The issues discussed are basic ones that would affect any strategy like that adopted here. “Will” knows that they were built into the strategy, but is revisiting them anyway just in case he missed something - or someone else did.

For background on Maura’s project, see today’s entry in Will Jackson’s Personal Log.

Subregions

More than three weeks into execution of the global strategy, the signs of the transition are more organizational than physical, though we expect that to change rapidly soon. The local division of the Extinction Response Unit just released a set of “subregion” maps for our region that are aligned with the latest projections of climate and ecosystem adaptations. Not surprisingly, their boundaries roughly coincide with the distribution of biomes WICO anticipated for the transition midpoint.

Maura has been back at work, sort of, performing a survey of our closest former test community, TC-013, from a historical perspective, while I do related research in our office. We’ll be in a new subregion when we move close to the university, which is shared by most of the mountains and subject to a different set of conditions for land management and basic survival that TC-013 was instrumental in identifying. This brought up a new direction of research, which I discussed with Maura last night: tracking cultural evolution as a function of subregion definition and mandated resettlement. She initially considered it too large a change in scope, but agreed to think more about it.

“That’s just bureaucratic BS,” Al said when he heard the news. “Nothin’s gonna change except what people call it. Adaptation’s the way of the world now, and everyone’s gotta be ready for anythin’.” He pointed to a weather map on the cafeteria television as we ate lunch. A stationary high-pressure system was baking the Midwest, with a long hot finger reaching as far west as the Rocky Mountain foothills. “That thing don’t care ‘bout ecosystems, and neither will the tornados that swing through next week. We’re just gonna have to ride ‘em out wherever we are until our itty-bitty changes amount to somethin’ big enough.”

“Are you kidding me, Al?” Significant changes between the plains and the mountains were a given for as long as I’d lived here. 

He sniffed, then snorted. “Smell that smoke, Will? This place is on its way to becomin’ a desert thanks to the oven we made, and the best way to shut off an oven is to cut the power. We’re doin’ it in a lot of little ways; and ‘til it works we’re all gonna be just hunkerin’ down wherever we are, which is a great way to cut some more power.”

“But isn’t where you are going to affect how you do it?” I asked the obvious question.

“How many ways do I gotta say it? A forest can become a desert in a week, and it may not have enough time to grow back. If you can live in both, then you got a chance at survivin’.”

“So, you’re saying the subregion rules are meaningless, along with what was learned in the test communities?”

“No. I’m saying we all gotta learn all of it, rules and the reasons behind ‘em.” He looked at me as if I’d lost my mind. “I thought you had this all figgered out already.”

“The ERU’s doing that coordination thing you always like, setting expectations and rules to match.”

“Point taken,” he said, leaning back. “We swapped places, didn’t we?”

“Looks that way, and it feels weird. What changed?”

He paused. “Perspective, I’d say. You got into history and how people organize life. I got into physics, the why of it all.”

It wasn’t just our new jobs. “Tell me about it,” I suggested.

Reality Check

Al’s new point of view is based on my own concept that rapid changes require flexible thinking and abilities that match the range of changes. The discussion of climate and ecosystems is based on my own observations and knowledge, not a rigorous scientific analysis.

See today’s entry in Will Jackson’s Personal Log for more about the project being worked on by Will and Maura.

Awakening

Maura came out of her coma early this morning. A week of tests by her doctors hadn’t determined any physical cause, a set of new tests couldn’t identify any problems. Oddly she knew the date, and was more cheerful than I have ever seen. She will be visiting her parents for a couple of days while I catch up on work and pursue a new project we came up with during the drive to their house.

Hours of watching television in the hospital room and frequent visits from Al and Maura’s parents have prepared me for the new world that took shape during the past week. WICO’s raids on striking companies were followed by an ultimatum to the companies’ management: either follow the global strategy or be charged with attempted omnicide. An agreement was reached with all parties over the weekend, and today work restarted on the environment-assisting technology.

Reality Check

I took a vacation last week, limiting exposure to news and social media in a near-disconnect from the issues that have consumed me for more than a year. I experienced a kind of joy I’ve missed while visiting the natural environment around Colorado’s Gunnison River with my wife.

For backstory related to Maura’s experience, see today’s entry in Will Jackson’s Personal Log.

Trauma

Maura woke up screaming at 3:45 this morning, and then fell into a deep coma. Doctors have not (so far) found any measurable damage or determined a cause. Al joined me by her side after she was brought by ambulance to a local hospital, and I intend to stay as long as it takes.

While we waited for a set of tests to be run, the emergency room television displayed breaking news of raids by national extinction response units that apparently targeted companies involved in the global strike on environment-assisting technology (EAT) development and deployment. As of this writing, there has been no official statement or explanation for the raids.

I intend to focus on the here-and-now, and plan to suspend this blog until at least Maura wakes up.

Reality Check

The onset of Maura’s coma coincides with a (purely fictional) trigger in the backstory that Will is currently unaware of. It is expected to last a week, preoccupying him along with ongoing events that he can’t reveal publicly, and keeping him from writing his blog until after she recovers.

Targets of Revolt

After nearly a week of experience executing the global strategy, WICO released the first of what it’s calling a Global Targets Update this morning. The update incorporates a minor change to the calculation of expected population during the transition into annual rates of change, globally and by region, for population, consumption components, and Gross World Product (with and without inflation).

In a statement about the update, Secretary General Decatur emphasized that it should be interpreted as “guidance in support of our main focus, to maximize natural habitat and use no more than half what healthy ecosystems can provide on a renewable basis.” It was the most succinct summary of the strategy that I’ve ever heard. He finished on an uncharacteristically rousing note: “Collapse is intolerable, in every place, for all people, and for all life!”

When it was over, Maura browsed social media for reactions while I scanned the television networks. A familiar voice stopped me after the third one. Mark Luke was on the steps of the U.S. Capitol, giving what sounded like a rebuttal speech, flanked by leaders of business and conservative lawmakers from the House and Senate. It soon became clear that it more than a rebuttal; it was a statement of revolt.

“Innovation depends on a robust economy, but that is no longer possible.” Holding up a printed copy of a graph from the update, Luke continued, “Those of us tasked with the bulk of the work in saving the world are being robbed of the rewards that make it possible and worthwhile. Until now, we held out hope that governments would come to their senses, giving them every opportunity to do so, given what’s at stake, but this so-called update has confirmed our worst fear: that their delusions are beyond the power of reason to dispel. A six percent drop in the real economy in this coming year alone! It’s beyond insanity, and we won’t tolerate it. We can’t tolerate it. Starting today we will only supply what we are paid for, and we are filing lawsuits to get what we are owed for services rendered. Any attempts to nationalize our companies will be met with the utmost resistance, backed by a coalition in Congress that still values the rights of liberty and happiness.”

The speech was followed by high-profile politicians fleshing out the last talking point. The highest- ranking senator in the group, Lawrence Bilford, gave what I thought was the best summary: “Even in the darkest days of our republic, all rights were treated as equal, inseparable, and non-negotiable. One cannot trump the others without diminishing them all. Life can stand alone, but without the others it is intolerable. Without liberty, each man’s happiness is enslaved by one man’s definition, which in the end allows only that man a few like him to be happy. With less happiness to achieve, there is no incentive to put in the effort, and the whole society suffers from its lack. That is the wisdom of our founding fathers, the authors of the constitution that guides its application in the world, the document we are sworn to protect above all else because it defines who we the people are.”

“I didn’t fully understand until now,” Maura gasped, tightly gripping my hand as Bilford finished his speech. “It’s all or nothing with them.”

I recalled Decatur’s value statement. “Collapse is tolerable as a cost of letting them grow, as long as someone else is experiencing it.” 

“They don’t accept the concept of collapse, Will,” she said. “My father used to joke about some people driving as if they were looking through the rear-view mirror. Except it wasn’t really a joke, it was an observation. If there are peaks behind you then there must be another peak ahead of you. This time, there’s just one big drop, and if they succeed, then everyone’s going to experience it.”

Reality Check

The new calculation better reflects expected changes in age during the transition, with fairly minor alteration to the details. Global rates of change through the transition are shown below:

A simulation of the number of people in each of the seven phases of development is displayed for 2015-2040 in the following animation, with the corresponding stages labeled and color-coded:

Feedbacks

Andy’s Riddick’s skepticism last week rattled me enough to look for historical evidence that supported or refuted it. Recalling that a depression and a world war coincided with the built environment (what Maura calls “wants”) exceeded what people consumed for basic needs, I decided to study how people reacted to the growth of waste over the last decade. Maura suggested that I focus on the economy, even though the most obvious similarity was a prolonged war in a region with the means of creating the most waste.

What I found was stunning. It looked like a few rich people were getting a lot richer by essentially peddling dead zones.

“What you’re seeing is an artifact of averages in an economic feedback loop,” Maura said after reviewing my results. She explained, “We’ve been creating waste for decades, but natural systems were able to turn it back into useful resources over a reasonable period of time such as a year. Then they couldn’t keep up, and the difference started making regions uninhabitable, like trash piling up in your house when it can’t be hauled away to the dump. 

“Instead of taking it out of the economy, people kept trading it as if it was usable like everything else. Because we’re converting resources, it still counts as consumption, on average, even though no one’s using it. Because we’re trading it, it counts as part of the economy; and because people are making money off it, there’s no incentive to stop creating it.”

I saw her point, adding, “And the people who enable the trading are making the most money, because all they have to move is paper and data instead of paying for something physical to be processed and moved.”

“Right,” she said approvingly. “Frankly, I’m surprised people haven’t revolted, causing something like a recession that would trigger massive regulation and stop the production of waste. Unfortunately, that economic feedback has created natural feedbacks that our present intervention may not be able to slow or stop.”

“The causes of the self-sustained impacts,” I guessed.

She nodded sadly. “The impacts are similar to waste, and are accelerating on their own.”

“Does your father understand all this?” I asked her.

“I’m sure of it. Dad’s the smartest person I know, with my uncle David being a close second.” That was a huge compliment. “He already expects the people who profited from the waste to try profiting from the self-sustained impacts, along with others who hope to get rich too.”

“That’s not going to happen, now that everyone knows what’s happening,” I said half-heartedly as the plausibility what she said began to sink in. “We’ve also got some pretty powerful government intervention in progress.”

“I’m with you,” she said, “but he’s worked in government most of his life and knows its limitations as well as anyone, along with the people he’s served and fought. He’s also got an excellent record of being right.” She paused for a few seconds, staring into space as I’d seen her father do a couple of times when he was thinking hard. “There’s something else to consider. This year, for the first time in history, the amount of waste will exceed what we consume for basic needs.”

I suddenly felt light-headed, seeing her point. “Like in the 1930s.”

She nodded. “When wants exceeded needs for the first time in history. And that was followed by the largest war in history.”

Tonight, Al will join Mara and me at her parents’ house for a dinner in celebration of Transition Day, which is the official start of the global strategy execution. I don’t feel like celebrating in light of what I learned over the past two days; instead, I’m inclined to brace for a long fight.

Reality Check

Explanations are my own hypotheses based on simulation.

The distribution over time of per-capita needs, wants, and waste for the simulated world Hikeyay is shown below. Note that in the 1970s, all renewable resources were being consumed by humanity, corresponding to the peak in wants, suggesting that a maximum rate of recycling was reached. It took another three decades for significant accumulation of waste.

A similar pattern emerges in projections of reality, represented by the simulated world Green, which did experience a recession following the appearance of waste (2007-2009):

Independence and Idealism

 

Critics in the media quickly jumped on Maura’s comment yesterday about us not coming out of an economic depression after the transition. They argued mostly that the economy would have no significant annual growth or loss after 2040 in the best case, and the worst case would be a “trivial case” accompanied by rapid economic gain and then extinction. They did acknowledge her main point, that what will suffices for an economy after the transition will likely be very different from what most people recognize now.

Maura’s father Andy, himself a student of history and a veteran of war in primitive environments, shared his opinion of what to expect during a visit last night. “I’ll be very surprised if the Great Plains have more than a few thousand people by the end of the transition. The water’s drying up fast, the temperature’s going to be unbearable, and without cheap energy there won’t be any way to compensate for either. Not to mention extreme and unpredictable weather, wildfires, and lack of an economy to move food from where it can be grown to where it’s needed.”

“Where do you think people will go, Andy?” Maura’s mother Ally asked.

He gave her a look that revealed this conversation wasn’t a new one. “The best way to head is north.” Turning to Maura and me, he continued, “I suggest you go to Montana as soon as your business at the university is done, Canada if you can manage it. This country’s got too much of an independent streak to survive what’s coming, despite the lofty rhetoric and signs of compliance with the strategy. At the first sign of major trouble, and the system’s too complex to avoid it, we’ll see the individualists start taking what they want, and most of us will be pushed into that collapse phase that WICO’s warning us about.”

“Really, Dad?” Maura challenged him. “I think people deserve a lot more credit than that.”

“I know you do,” he said, as if he was reciting the time of day, “but you saw what that reverend’s people tried to do to you. People like that are everywhere, biding their time until they can force people to let them live the way they want.”

“The evidence is too compelling to ignore, Andy,” I said. “I’ve seen people eager to learn and do what’s right with what they discover.”

“You mean with PFR?” he guessed correctly. “Possibilities from Responsibilities is doing an admirable job channeling that independent spirit into something positive. That was a great insight you had, son. But I promise you: it’s only temporary.”

When they had gone home, I asked Maura if any of her “sisters” agreed with Andy’s point. “None of my friends here do, as you might expect,” she said, referring to her childhood friends who live in communes, “but the others would be totally on his side, seeing what’s happening here as a major aberration.”

“It better not be,” I said, suddenly unsure of everything else.

Reality Check

I expect that Andy being right is more likely than not. Will’s final comment is based on my own reaction to the thought experiment on display in this post.

Ideal Expectations

 

“We’ll have the population and feel of the late-1980s, while each consuming as much as people did in 1920.” Maura paused for effect after summarizing the ideal outcome of the transition, and was greeted with confused stares from the crowd attending her public lunchtime lecture. “Oh, come on,” she said with a hint of amusement, “surely most of you have heard this before.” She knew they hadn’t, at least not like this, which was the point of the lecture.

A woman old enough to be her mother raised a hand, and Maura nodded to let her speak. “Sweetie, that makes no sense! My momma grew up in the 20s, and it wasn’t anything like the 80s.”

Maura smiled as she had in her rehearsals when a similar question was asked by her mock audience, namely me. “It’s going to be a new world,” she answered patiently, “where we’ll get to use what we’ve learned in the past century to live better with what people did before that.” It was a gross simplification, as preliminary summaries often are, but as a natural teacher she knew better than to start by taking a deep dive into the details.

“Is it because we’ll be coming out of a depression?” asked a male student I recognized from a summer session at the university.

“The depression happened after 1920,” the woman corrected him.

“We won’t be coming out of this depression,” Maura said solemnly. “The reason is that we’ll be converting much of our artificial economy back into nature’s economy; so other creatures can provide more of what we need, which we can’t safely provide on our own.”

“But we won’t have cars and planes like we did in the 80s, right?” the woman insisted.

“Right. We’ll have to use what we’ve learned to take care of the basics without them and all the pollution that comes with them.” Her answer reminded me of the TBDs in the early strategy draft, which have been turned into goals of creative effort in synergy with other species we’ll hopefully bring back from the brink of extinction.

“It won’t really be like the 80s, then,” the woman said.

“We’ll have a new, better version, where we live as long and are just as happy, and can do so for a long time.”

Al shouted from the rear of the room, “That’s if we can clean up all the waste and stop those nasty time bombs we lit a few years ago!”

“The self-sustained impacts,” Maura clarified, caught by surprise. “Everything depends on that.”

Reality Check

Maura’s description is based on the simulated past back to 1920 and projections out to 2040.

Downsizing

Maura and I received feedback on our personal plans today. Like many couples uncertain about whether we want children, we were encouraged to abandon the idea and move into a much smaller home nearer the university where we work. Maura suspects that, in addition, our local community plan is being revised by the Extinction Response Unit to replace the buildings in our neighborhood with natural habitat as a node in a wildlife corridor that would logically join open spaces that have already expanded to our north and east.

“They’re going to have to scrub the coal ash ponds,” she reminded me as we studied on online map of our area, “and I wouldn’t be surprised if they take out the neighborhoods surrounding them in the process.”

“What about the highway?” I asked, pointing to the interstate that runs nearby. It seemed like a significant barrier to any major influx of wildlife.

“That would do more harm than good right now. If I were doing the analysis,” which I knew she did in her old job at the ERU, “I’d keep the critical supply chains in place until a basic level of self-sufficiency can be developed in the dependent areas.”

I recalled a graph from the global strategy showing a projection of average personal consumption during the transition. It showed a trading of waste for what it simplistically called needs and wants, with artificial structures used for wants such as living space being replaced with materials that could be better be assimilated into ecosystems. Waste includes pollution such as the coal ash and gas emissions that make places unlivable, as well as those unlivable spaces themselves that need to be reclaimed. “To me, a lot of roads help produce waste, so removing them should be a no-brainer,” I responded.

“Let’s wait for the updated plans before we pass judgment,” Maura suggested. “In the meantime, we should start looking for a new house.”

Reality Check

Will’s home setting is loosely based on my own, and I am personally searching for a smaller house for obviously different reasons.

Establishing low impact self-sufficiency for the population of a metropolitan area like Colorado’s Front Range would be problematic under the best circumstances, not to mention cleaning up waste in its many forms (such as coal ash, which is a real) and cutting off its sources which provide income to many people. One approach that can help was chosen by the simulated world: reducing population by limiting births and limiting medical prolonging of life, as well as enabling emigration to areas with more resources.

Following is a graph like what Will was recalling:

Plans

During this last week until the formal execution of the global strategy, all nations are preparing “startup status reports” that detail how close they are to the targets for 2040. The reports will be filed with WICO and posted online for everyone to see. Plans for implementing the strategy are already available at the resolution of communities of five-thousand or more people, that include bench marks expected to be reached over the next year.

Like many people, I spent the last three days finalizing my personal plan and today will be submitting it to the Extinction Response Unit for evaluation and feedback that ensures it is consistent with the relevant community plans. Maura and I have decided to file jointly as a family unit now that we both live and work together, and so our plans are very similar. Much of the time spent preparing the plan involved discussing what we see as our joint future, shaped by our joint values and commitment to “creating as much good as possible, locked into the past everywhere that’s touched,” as she likes to say.

As expected, the main goal of the plans is to reduce ecological impact to minimize the extinction rate by maximizing longevity, quantity, diversity, and quality of life, in that order, with emphasis on our species. The checklists included with the plans vary by global region, with specifics of culture, environment, and current impacts accounted for. Here in the Rocky Mountain region, industrial pollution, extractive industries, transportation, other land and water use, and population growth are major concerns, along with increasing climate variability that affects the ability of local ecosystems to provide basic needs. Rapid reduction of all of the above is a top priority for the majority of plans here, as they should be elsewhere.

Part of the research Maura and I are performing involves learning how parts of existing regions might inform understanding of the history and potential future of others, at all scales. Flying to other regions in this and other nations could provide valuable information that would be hard to collect remotely. However, flying has one of the largest ecological impacts of any activity, and should therefore be avoided where possible. We’re exploring other possibilities, such as expanding the partnership between the university and WICO, datamining of online news sources, and leveraging work being done by other groups on other projects.

Reality Check

The “family unit” formed by Will and Maura is, of course, fictional - just as they are. In some respects, however, their relationship is based on how I imagine my wife and I might have formed one if we met around the age of 30 under the conditions of the simulated world.

Work on community plans would have been in progress since the declaration of the global emergency in January. Completion of the strategy and completion of education activities during deployment would trigger finalizing detailed plans at the individual level.

Limiting high-impact activities such as mining is an obvious early step in any effort to reduce the extinction rate, since it affects two of the main drivers (habitat loss and pollution). Unlike our real world, the simulated world is not trying to maintain socio-economic norms through technological innovation; so traditional renewable energy sources won’t be developed on anything other than a temporary “bridge” basis, if at all, and any new infrastructure will likely be more focused on synergy with ecosystems using a radical version of today’s permaculture.

Historical Context

This morning, Maura tried out a lecture to a group of other professors (and me). It was a summary of the imminent extinction threat and the first public presentation of her preliminary framework for putting it in historical context. Following are some of the highlights.

“The last quarter of the thirteenth century is known for at least two technological innovations: eyeglasses and firearms. One allowed people to see better, and the other allowed them to kill more efficiently. Unknown until recently, it also marked the beginning of an era when the world’s human population would be dependent on the populations of the world’s other species. 

“Technological innovation progressed in tandem with scientific discovery, enabling advances in transportation, mining, agriculture, and construction that accelerated the conversion of everything into ‘resources’ that could be traded between people to increase how long they lived, how satisfied they were with their lives, and how many children they had.

“A second milestone was achieved in the 1930s. If we measure the amount of resources as the impact of actions on ecosystems, the resources consumed by the entire population was double what people needed to survive. After that, there would be more resources in stuff than in people. That new reality accompanied and was enabled by the creation of a global civilization marked by revolutions in science and technology, development of cheap fossil fuel, and conflict between groups of people who were trying to dominate or survive the merging of cultures into an interdependent whole.

“Rapidly accelerating per-capita consumption in the 1940s stopped growing in the 1970s, just as total consumption exceeded the amount of resources provided on a renewable basis by other species. This third milestone corresponded to a peak in life satisfaction that was achieved by four out of five people while the rest kept trying to reach that peak. Meanwhile, there was growing concern that fossil fuel production had itself reached a peak, and the status quo might not be able to be maintained.

“For more than two decades, population growth drove growth in how much of the world’s ecological resources humanity used, both in needs and wants. Science and technology contributed to more efficient use of resources that helped reduce per-capita consumption. At the end of that period, a fourth milestone was reached: the population consisted of people still pushing toward that happiness peak and people between that peak and a higher one that also corresponded to a peak in life expectancy.

“Per-capita consumption began to grow again in the mid-2000s, and most of what was added made parts of the world uninhabitable by other species and us. By 2015, more than one-seventh of the original resources were not consumable. Also, that year, a few percent of the population was not having children, reflected by a life expectancy of zero, and self-sustained impacts began cutting into the remaining resources.

“WICO projects that, if the global strategy isn’t implemented on schedule, a fifth milestone will be reached in 2023 as the world’s population reaches its peak. That will be followed by rapid population loss until 2030. Hopefully, we will settle into something between the third and fourth milestones, maintaining a smaller population by living mostly off of renewable resources produced by a healthier biosphere.” 

Reality Check

Historical events are correlated with the historical record until 1940. After 1940, projected global values for the simulation “Hikeayay” are used to identify the boundaries of the phases, which correlate to the “milestones” recited by Maura.

Programs

During the six days since WICO Secretary General Decatur asserted that the technology already exists to stop self-sustaining impacts, the press has been interviewing everyone they can to determine if it’s true. Maura was approached a dozen times for the source of “pretty good authority that he lied,” and each time she responded that the source insists on remaining anonymous.

The Sacramento Watcher has compiled the most complete list of impacts and related technologies that I know of, and reported that at least six unspecified new technologies are being developed that are classified top secret because of their potential to be used as weapons. I suspect - but can’t confirm - that most of the new technologies fall under the category of globaforming, and would be applied to the most difficult task of refreezing permafrost that threatens to release catastrophic amounts of methane and ancient diseases into the biosphere if it melts much more.

Possibilities from Responsibilities is in the news today, advertising guided nature walks in urban areas “to introduce more people to the wellbeing they can create during the transition.” The organization is providing transportation for those who don’t have it, and providing resources for adding greenery to areas with very little or none. The programs were about to be launched when I resigned, and it’s good to see them now underway.

Reality Check

“Globaforming” is a made-up word, meaning “surgical terraforming.”

Cutting Plans

“One man’s waste is another’s treasure. Not countin’ pollution, of course.” Al Menzies and I stood on a knoll overlooking the Colorado Holistic University campus. He had just finished work on a plan for cutting the ecological impact of the physics complex by half over the next 13 years. His suggestions will be integrated into a larger plan with a similar target for the university as a whole. “I hate knockin’ down buildings,” he continued, “but the offices have gotta go.”

I imagined native plants occupying the area after the demolition. “I’m surprised that efficiency doesn’t get you at least that much,” I said, fully aware that he must have tackled that low-hanging fruit at the beginning of the effort.

“Efficiency!” he spat. “With current tech, that keeps ya from losin’ about a sixth of what’s added, energy and so-on. If ya take out the need for addin’ then you’re gettin’ real savings. Nature knows how: reuse everything, includin’ the consumers. That’s the example we gotta follow.”

“That seems like overkill,” I insisted. “Is it because we need the labs to support the stop-and-clean?” Yes, I used the new lingo for stopping self-sustained impacts and getting rid of pollution.

“It’s simpler than that. Remember Menzies’ Rule? Do everything ya can, as soon as ya can, ‘cause it might not be possible later.”

A block to our right, I saw Maura exit the history department where I now work. She waved, and I waved back. “Have you heard what they’ll be doing with history?” I asked Al.

“Nah,” he said, “but I’m guessin’ it’ll be less ‘cause of their lack of labs. Also, the alumni love the history of the place a lot more, pun intended. Like I said, another’s treasure.”

Stories of similar decisions are appearing more frequently in the news as promises made during the negotiation of the global strategy now have the force of law. Most cities have already announced that they will be literally breaking ground in less than two weeks, putting plans into action so they have a defensible chance of meeting the strategy’s targets.

Reality Check

The following graph shows the distribution of world resources as projected over time for the simulated world. Ratios discussed in the post apply to the sum of wants and waste. Note that waste must be totally gone two years after the deadline.