Tuesday, July 30, 2019


By what WICO claims is coincidence, the number of regions and subregions now totals exactly one thousand. Maura suspects that such a round number is more likely an error correction based on the remote and direct observations accumulated over the past month, similar to the earlier increase in regions from around 120 to 300.

Maura and I went to the mountains for a break from work and the summer heat, but I knew it would be more than that when I found a Personal Environmental Assessment Kit in the trunk. We ended up at the site of the local test community (TC-013). “For fun” she demonstrated the full set of citizen observations, which includes a dozen added after I resigned from the GAP team. Several of the original residents were still there, and brought out their remaining instruments to verify our results. Maura and the others cheered when the observations matched to within ten percent, and teased me for not joining in.

Lei Kaleo and Maura’s cousin Ciera Johnson insisted that we all go to the nearest hot springs, which reminds the two best friends of one of their favorite activities when growing up. They lamented that the impending curtailment of air travel means they likely won’t get to return to their childhood home in Hawaii, whose rainforests are a large part of what led them to their present careers, but neither regrets moving to Colorado. During the trip, they all told stories of their time together, especially on the mountain; generally happy, some intriguing, and all providing context for current and future projects of both a personal and professional nature. 

ABOVE (L-R): Me, Maura, and Ciera.

Reality Check

I derived a mathematical formula for the cumulative population as a function of phase, and used it to derive total consumption as a function of phase. A key factor in the population function is dependent on sample size used in the calculation, which equals 1,000 when tweaked to get accurate values for global variables such as total resources and resources used by nature (as determined from historical analysis). 

The results for Hikeyay are shown below for 2019 year and 2040, the end of the transition. Basic functions of phase for life expectancy, happiness, fertility, and normalized population/nature are displayed along with the historical years that the world crossed, or is projected to cross, from one phase to another. Cumulative population is shown the given year. Cumulative consumption is also shown for the given year, as the fraction of maximum resources ever available (a total ecological footprint of approximately 3 Earths/year), while the total resources actually available due to reduction by self-sustained impacts is indicated by a dotted black line.

1 comment:

  1. For some backstory, see Will Jackson's Personal Log at https://www.patreon.com/posts/27469626.