Thursday, January 10, 2019

Secretary General Elaborates Strategy Goals


WICO Secretary General Decatur defended the United States president’s position on strategy development in a briefing on global response to the DIE threat:

“The requirements include mitigation and avoidance in addition to elimination of imminent global extinction. President Larson, like other leaders within her country and around the world, is properly focusing on what makes sense to her and those she represents. The strategies due at the end of this month are likely, and encouraged, to be regional and to fit what people have the most incentive to actually do. It is up to WICO, in performing its basic function of processing information and coordinating action that impacts everyone, to integrate those strategies, assess what the result is likely to be, and recommend action to meet our collective goal of surviving for as long as possible under the best conditions achievable. I must caution everyone, however, that the time constraint is not arbitrary, and our chances of success will be maximized if the guidance provided in the declaration and its companion documents is followed closely. Ambassadors involved in the integration effort can provide additional detailed guidance as needed.”

He was asked by the press representative from Japan about the natural feedbacks that President Larson mentioned in her address on Tuesday. “We have identified the potentially significant ones,” he answered, “such as melting polar ice and critical degradation of marine and land ecosystems that have served as pollution sinks. The range of estimated impact, including none, is included in the scenarios outlined for the strategy alternatives. Those strategies, with the baseline being the most effective, are premised on the possibility that we can reduce pressure on ecosystems enough so they can slow or stop any feedbacks. We currently see no reason to revise the estimates or the strategies, but are ready to do so if new observations or understanding warrant it.”

Reality Check

Three general ways of dealing with a problem are the basis of the types of strategy required as response to the emergency declaration in the simulated world (elimination, mitigation, and avoidance). There are two types of problem that must be addressed in any strategy: experienced (such as current climate change and pollution); and potential (problems that might later be experienced).

People are assumed to have preferences for strategy types and problem types based on personality and experience. Broadly, cultures are assumed to both represent and control the experiences of people within them. They also favor people of specific personality types based on the people who have dominated them. These assumptions are the basis for strategy development and public opinion reported for “nations” (as cultures) within the simulated world.

Because my direct experience is with the United States, the reports of other nations will undoubtedly be far more fictional – but, of course, it all is fictional. The point of the reports is to explore foreseeable issues surrounding the strategies discussed and what the impacts of those strategies might be, based on my simulations.

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