Wednesday, January 23, 2019



Following are brief answers to the top three questions from the international press pool, which are based on my visit to STRIDE’s Strategy Integration group headquarters on January 19-21.

1.     Has the assessment of the threat changed since the Global Emergency declaration, and if so, what is the new assessment?

The threat remains as described in the declaration, though STRIDE has much more detail than was revealed there. Essentially: STRIDE estimates with 80% confidence that humanity will be extinct by 2038 if no action is taken to substantially reduce its ecological footprint beginning this year.

2.     Based on strategy inputs received to date, how probable is it that we will avoid extinction?

As of yesterday, adjustments were still being made and assumptions evaluated. The team’s best judgment was that it would be around 40%. 

3.     How soon after the deadline does STRIDE expect to have a completed strategy?

The integration will take no more than one month after the national strategies are received and the action pledges signed. The resulting treaties can be ready for negotiation almost immediately after that, and should be signed no later than the end of April. STRIDE is dedicated to providing meaningful feedback as soon as possible to avoid delays on implementation.

Reality Check

By question:

1.     The extinction response is based on my simulation’s best match to historical data.
2.     Such estimates would be in flux based on feedback from field evaluators, which would be expected to take some time. The 40% number is dependent on the average of the quality and quantity of inputs received through the online tool, and on the confidence in the projections of the model.
3.     Without assistance from a sophisticated AI like Sanda, such a project could conceivably take many months. Luckily the simulated world has access to that technology and can turn around the strategy fast enough for the implementation schedule to possibly be met. 

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