Monday, February 11, 2019

Integration Process


“The process is in principle quite simple,” Sally said after displaying a complex graph on my computer screen. She was referring to the steps taken to stitch together a global strategy from the national inputs and the stream of public feedback that has dominated every social media platform. “The people to nature ratio is calculated for each region. Statistics for each of the global variables are collected, where available, and estimated if not. Our biosphere survey data is used similarly for other species, along with time series to identify how they might adapt and cause changes to the conditions and populations of relevant ecosystems. Human behavior models from several fields of study are used to estimate adaptation and changes people might make, similar to the other species and informed by how the national strategies and likely reactions to the strategy might alter that behavior.  All of that includes movements between regions, and is integrated with projections of physical processes and how they are expected to affect regional environmental conditions.”

“That doesn’t sound simple,” I told her. “No wonder WICO needs an AI to do the majority of the work. How much of it is done?”

“Roughly three-fourths of the development effort is complete. Testing will begin by the weekend; and if there are no major issues found then the strategy will be ready for publication on February 25.”

“What kinds of issues would be major?” I asked.

“Significant deviation from the top-level strategy is one, since it would signal a fundamental problem with one or more of the guiding assumptions. Discovery of significant new feedbacks between multiple variables is another. That’s just what we can anticipate.”

“That last comment suggests you have a buffer built into the schedule.”

 “Any good plan does,” Sally acknowledged. “The only hard deadline is the implementation date, barring any new information to the contrary, of course.”

Reality Check

The process outlined here is my best recommendation, given the capabilities I’ve given the imaginary world. Since I don’t have those capabilities myself, I can’t offer even high confidence in guessing what the results would be.

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