High Level Global Strategy Announced

TIME TO GLOBAL STRATEGY DEADLINE: 24 DAYS

Ambassador Lazlo today announced that the Strategy Integration group has synthesized a high-level global strategy consistent with the national strategies submitted last week to deal with the DIE threat. It is similar to one of its three top candidates, reducing population and per-capita ecological footprint to stable levels by 2040. “The target population is approximately 5.3 billion people,” she said, “averaging 1.3 standard resources per person per year for a total footprint of 0.5 Earth per year. In July we will begin with an estimated 7.7 billion people, 3.4 resources per person, and 1.9 Earths per year. Development of a detailed strategy that meets these targets comprises the majority of the group’s remaining work, which continues on schedule.”

Lazlo released several charts to illustrate the global strategy, beginning with a time series of main global variables.

The corresponding Hope Chart shows the total consumption and assumed impacts of natural feedbacks over time. Note that Sally’s worst-case feedback is now included.

A new piece of information is a projection of annual change rates for global variables, which gives a sense of the effort required to meet the target. Lazlo explained that population change varies slightly from what could be expected by not replenishing die-off of older people (appearing as a dotted line for reference). 

The last graph illustrates the distribution of global variables across the population in 2041 for the range of “samples” corresponding to basic effort per person.

Reality Check

The numbers and graphs are direct outputs from the simulation based on no impact from sustained natural feedbacks.