Unknowns

TIME TO STRATEGY EXECUTION: 97 DAYS

This morning I met via teleconference some of the people involved in development and test of technologies for removing widely dispersed toxic air, water, and soil pollutants (WDPs). Their effort has been in progress at dozens of sites around the world since the beginning of the biosphere assessment.

Notably, twenty-three of the sites focus on filtering carbon dioxide out of the water and rapidly converting it into rock formations that will be stable for more than a millennium. The formations have the added benefits of providing shelter for sea life deprived of it by the dissolution of coral, and enclosing areas of melting permafrost so released methane doesn’t leak into the ocean.

“We are almost at a scale that is self-sustaining,” project team leader Asem Aziz told me and Riddick. “The test environment extends thirty kilometers from our atoll in region seventy-three, containing shallow and deep habitats that have been thoroughly studied.” He referred to a three-dimensional map of the area on a split screen as he talked, which alternately showed geological, chemical, and temperature gradients. “Contiguous formations are called ‘pads,’ and each pad is accompanied by sensors that are used to regulate the processing and characteristics of both the pad and its local environment.”

 Riddick asked about the speed of deployment and how it would track with the current strategy timeline. He answered, “The acceleration phase will take a decade, and deceleration to the stable phase will occur during the last five years along with decommissioning of the technology, barring any unknowns.”

That last phrase bothered me, since planning for the unexpected figured prominently in the rules that shaped the strategy. “Have you considered what those unknowns might be in general terms, especially as they relate to risks?”

His body language told me that he was insulted by the question. I interpreted it as a good sign.

“We see two major categories of risk contributions whose full membership we do not know. One is the response of microbial life to the pads, and the other is geological events such as new thermal vents or volcanic activity in the vicinity of the pads. Either category could degrade or reverse the progress made, or worse.”

Riddick did that strange thing with her eyes that I noted when we first met. “The spatial and temporal scales are large enough that the risk is significant and requires further evaluation. Our geophysical modelers and biologists can provide input to help you characterize those sources and suggest low-impact shielding approaches that might still be used.”

“How did you know about the risks to the pads?” I asked Riddick in her office after the meeting.

“I can’t help learning,” she said. “That’s valuable when you’re projecting a future that is defined by the unknown.”

What an odd thing to say, I thought later: Projecting afuture.

Reality Check

The undersea technology is totally made up, along with the risks, but based on my limited knowledge and experience they seem reasonable.