Protest and Commitment

Disapproval turned into open protest over the weekend in several nations as their governments focused on developing strategies for dealing with Death by Imminent Extinction (DIE). 

An estimated fifteen million people opposing contraception and abortion held rallies and vigils in cities around the world to demand avoiding those means to stop births as proposed in the baseline strategy by the World Information and Coordination Organization (WICO). Free market and industry advocates flooded online and hard-copy news and opinion sources with suggestions for mobilizing businesses to rapidly increase efficiency measures in manufacturing as an alternative to blanket discouragement of consumption.

The leaders of the world’s three largest economies issued a joint statement Sunday confirming that they “are fully committed to doing whatever is necessary to avoid the extinction of humankind.” They offered no explanation for their delay. 

United States president Johanna Larson added in a separate statement that a warning in the last chapter of the Global Emergency declaration removed unspecified doubt about the urgency of the climate-affecting component of the threat. The warning reads in part, with emphasis in the text: “Sustained warming, triggered soon if not already underway (significantly likely), will conservatively multiply the threat to a level that is impossible to survive BY ANY CONCEIVABLE MEANS.” A projection given in a related appendix shows that the baseline strategy under sustained warming would extend estimated time of extinction (ETE) from 2038 with business-as-usual to 2052 in the most likely scenario. 

Reality Check

Protest statistics are made up, but groups like those indicated would almost certainly have the objections given.

The warning listed in the declaration’s “appendix” is based on simulation of increasing global footprint extrapolated from the current trend beginning in 2018-2019.

Public Unhappy with WICO’s DIE Strategy

Overnight polls of world public opinion show that there is only 40% approval for the baseline strategy proposed by the World Information and Coordination Organization (WICO) to deal with the ecological collapse threat, which much of the press has nicknamed DIE (Death by Imminent Extinction).

The strategy involves stopping all births and growth in personal consumption of natural resources until humanity’s extinction pressure on other species drops to zero. Population and individual consumption can then change if there is no resulting pressure. In yesterday’s Global Emergency declaration, WICO provided a set of definitions and measurement criteria that could be used to define and deal with the threat. 

Public disapproval centered on three main issues: the significance of extinction pressure; enforcement of limits on birth and consumption; and dismissal of technological innovation that might replace the strategy entirely. 

Responding to the polls and other reactions reflecting the low approval, WICO Secretary General Arvin Decatur stressed in a speech this morning that objections to the strategy are expected to be resolved during the detailed strategy development mandated by the declaration. He added that, “Course corrections can be identified and implemented based on new experience and understanding. The urgency of the threat requires direct and immediate action using what we have and know now, and nature is presently a much better engineer than any of us.” 

Reality Check

The poll results are totally made up. They make sense based on my reading of related literature and personal experience.

Decatur’s final points are my own opinions. The technological innovation issue is a critical one because it provides a very tempting alternative to control of behavior (self or otherwise), but it requires time to develop and sort out its potentially worse consequences, time that the simulated world (and arguably ours) doesn’t have.

Global Emergency Declared

January 3, 2019

The World Information and Coordination Organization (WICO) today declared a state of Global Emergency in response to the threat of imminent ecological collapse. This follows its five-year assessment of health and survival prospects of the world’s known species, including our own.

A Global Emergency declaration requires all member nations to jointly develop strategies for elimination, mitigation, and avoidance of a threat to global survival, and to pledge action by the date determined by WICO’s assessment of urgency. The date chosen by WICO is 1 February 2019, with implementation by all capable parties required by 1 July 2019.

The publicly released summary of the threat assessment report estimates human extinction (at least 90% population loss) by 2038 with 80% confidence if no action is taken to deal with the threat. It adds that increasing loss of life is practically inevitable if business-as-usual proceeds past 2020. A “baseline” strategy is outlined, and will be subject to modification during detailed strategy development.

Reactions to the declaration are mixed, even though it has been anticipated for at least two months. Leaders and representatives of more than two-thirds of the world’s nations have unequivocally stated that they are dedicated to immediately taking the next steps. Notably the nations with the most resource-extractive economies have yet to do so.

Reality Check

In the real world, there is no WICO. Its closest analog is the United Nations. 

There is little doubt in the scientific community that ecological collapse is in progress, in large part due to climate change.

The recommendations of WICO are in line with the simulation that I’m calling “Timeline 3,” which is an alternative to the simulation “Timeline 2” that best matches historical data from 1950-2018 and is the basis for the statistics and timing given.