Preparations and Phases

 

We heard today that the Extinction Response Unit is officially on schedule to begin decommissioning high-impact structures and technologies by the end of the year. That scared a lot of people in subregions like ours who hoped they would have more time to develop natural ways of meeting basic needs before the current means disappear. 

Meeting one of those needs, water, is particularly problematic because it must currently be pumped or imported to grow an adequate amount of food for all the people who rely on it. This is made even more difficult by the already-erratic climate that is making access unpredictable while noticeably turning our home into a desert. In addition, the water must be cleaned by natural ecosystems that are either not available or not healthy enough to adequately perform the task. Few of us have any doubt that a mass exodus to places with more resources will be necessary within the next five years, and indeed dynamic contingency plans are already being developed domestically and internationally.

As Maura anticipated, the phase nomenclature has been rapidly adopted by both planning agencies and the public to communicate about the complex issues involved in the transition. We are already seeing a convergence of names for each phase in social and professional use which tend to have an economic theme similar to a business supply chain. That theme is likely to change since the world economic system will be undergoing a major overhaul during the transition - mainly to limit private ownership of ecological resources so that Consumers (the currently popular name for people in Phase 1) and Marketers (in Phase 2) aren’t rewarded for destroying functioning ecosystems. As Phase 4 Processors (performing multiple functions) we will soon be cut off from Phase 5 Manufacturers and the Phase 6 Suppliers we and the Manufacturers depend on for raw materials. The world has only recently seen the future it’s trying to avoid in the Perishers of Phase 7 who as a result of our efforts might yet be saved from their doom.

Reality Check

Some major discoveries have resulted in a revamping of how global variables are distributed throughout the global population. One consequence is a better ability to characterize how phases correspond with the way people live their lives, especially on an economic basis. The world map shown below is one result, constructed from GDP data with an error margin of plus-or-minus 0.6 phase.

Following is an updated phase diagram for when the global strategy was executed:

Inflection Point

 

Last night, Maura asked me a simple question that became the subject of a meeting today with the leadership of Possibilities from Responsibilities: “Have you considered what to do if the external impacts can’t be stopped in 2040?” That year is the “end state” that we’ve all been planning on, where everything levels off after a 21-year decline.

I recalled the version of the Hope Chart showing the alternative scenario she referred to, where population begins to grow again and consumption drops at a slower pace. “We’ll go along with everyone else, and minimize the pain to buy more time,” I answered her, suddenly feeling lame.

She gave me a look of pity that I’ll never forget. “There won’t be enough resources left to buy more time, Will. The pain will get worse for another 27 years, and then everyone will be dead.”

“That’s not going to happen,” I said, and then regretted it. In the three months that we’ve known each other, there have been over a half-dozen conversations about the hubris behind technology, and I didn’t want this to be another one. “We don’t know what’s really going to happen,” I corrected myself.

“That’s true,” she conceded, “though Sally says the uncertainty’s now less than five percent that it won’t get worse.” If anyone knew, it would be Sally the AI.

“What’s the trigger? What’s so special about 2040?” I remembered what it used to be, but she might have new information.

She played along. “It’s an inflection point, a sudden transition. Because of increasing age, if people don’t start having more children then they won’t be able to keep the population from going extinct. Also, per-capita consumption will be right at the edge of keeping a global civilization functioning. If it drops further, then we can’t organize our response or maintain technology that can have a substantial effect.”

I decided to ask her something I had no clue about, mainly because it never became part of the strategy. “What happens if we try to keep everything level anyway?”

“Consumption would have to drop to zero, with the obvious result.” Translation: everyone dies.

When I brought up the subject with the PFR leadership, Louis Delambre told me they were planning to add basic needs training to the next iteration of its Possibilities Bootcamp. “We’re offering it as a way to free up resources to deal with emergencies, something we had to do a few times in the test communities.”

When I said I would be writing about this, Louis and the rest of the leadership agreed that it should be advertised as necessary preparation for if nothing else is possible.

Reality Check

There are actually three non-trivial inflection points (using the geometric definition), obvious on the following graphs: in 2019, 2040, and 2062. The period discussed by Will and Maura is from 2040 to 2067. The characterization of what happens is drawn from the simulation.

Bootcamp

Early this morning I released the following announcement to the press:

“Possibilities from Responsibilities (PFR) is running its first Possibilities Bootcamp for the next three days in Sieva, Montana. Based on experience in World Information and Coordination Organization (WICO) test communities, the event is an opportunity for people to learn the basics of living a healthy, low-impact lifestyle similar to what they can expect after the global transition. Sieva’s residents have graciously offered their town to be used for training in identifying differences between pre-transition and post-transition environments, and are hosting town hall meetings both Saturday and Sunday nights to discuss what a local transition might look and feel like. Tours of the test community Vitalla are scheduled for Sunday, where WICO educational consultants will discuss the Threat of Imminent Extinction Global Strategy (TIEGS) and how it relates to testing done at the site.”

PFR has been recruiting attendees in the Sieva vicinity and online since Tuesday in order to determine demand for such events, and decided late last night to make it more public. I will be attending the Sieva activities, and Maura Riddick will be one of the educational consultants at Vitalla. Lessons learned from the event will be used to design events for other locations to begin during July in parallel with the strategy’s final execution phase.

Reality Check

The “bootcamp” is not a real event. As mentioned on May 15, Sieva is not a real town, and neither is Vitalla (a.k.a. TC-015).

I will not be posting to this blog until after Monday.